Date & Time: 08/23/2017 10:00 AM MST
Forecaster: Henz, D.
After an extended break period from Monsoon, storm chances look to return later today and possibly into tomorrow. Looking at the big picture, a cutoff disturbance to our west will move east across AZ today into Thursday. Moist southerly flow ahead of our system also aided by a weakened Monsoon ridge to our southeast should help stimulate activity across the region later today and then potentially again tomorrow before drier air moves in behind the departing system. Looking ahead, guidance shows warming temperatures over the region starting Friday and into this upcoming weekend.
For today plan mainly sunny skies into the early afternoon. Daytime highs will reach the 102˚F-104˚F range around the Valley with upper 90s across the foothill regions. Light and variable winds will likely give way to localized gustier conditions into this evening. Expecting activity to initiate across southern AZ this afternoon with storms trying to ride outflow boundaries north/northwest into portions of the County this evening/overnight. Any stronger storms that materialize will be capable of brief heavy rain and gusty winds, though it appears blowing dust may pose greater concerns than measurable rainfall.
For tomorrow morning plan on remnant debris clouds from any overnight activity before sunnier conditions. Afternoon temperatures will again warm into the 102˚F-104˚F range around the Valley. Light and variable winds early on may give way to localized gustier conditions from passing outflows from the north. In regards to storm potential, drier air will quickly move into the region tomorrow afternoon, which may limit lower desert storm chances. Thus, expecting storm activity to be limited to the higher terrain areas north and east of the Valley. Heading into Friday and the upcoming weekend, plan on warming temperatures as high pressure redevelops across the Desert Southwest. More on the weekend forecast tomorrow.
|Air Quality (O3)||Moderate||Moderate||Moderate|