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Weather Outlook

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Coyote Wash Weather Station

Date & Time:  9/22/2014 10:30 AM MST
Forecaster:  Henz, D.


Today marks the last day of summer and mother nature seems content with providing us with quiet but hot weather as we usher in the fall season this week. Looking at the big picture, high pressure will quickly build across the Desert Southwest on the heels of a departing upper-level disturbance. A modest warming trend will continue over the next few days complete with triple digit heat and mainly dry conditions through the end of the work week. Long range model guidance is coming into better agreement in regards to our next weather system out of the Pac-NW which is forecast to move into the region this upcoming weekend. More details on this potential upcoming system will be covered in tomorrow’s Outlook.


For today plan on another hour or so of lingering morning pockets of clouds before mainly sunny skies through the rest of the day. Afternoon temperatures will climb into the 98˚F-102˚F range around the Valley with higher terrain areas reaching the mid 90s. Variable winds will remain in the light category (3-7mph range) with no noteworthy gust expected. Drier mid-level air will continue to filter into the region from the west cutting off any chances for afternoon/evening t-storm activity in and around the lower deserts. Isolated storms are still expected to fire this afternoon over the high terrain of eastern AZ where deeper moisture resides. Overnight temperatures will drop into the upper to mid 70s around the Valley under clear skies and light winds.


A similar forecast is in store for tomorrow with daytime highs climbing into the low 100s around the Valley under mainly sunny skies. Variable winds will remain in the 3-7mph range with no gusts of any consequence. Slight chances for afternoon/evening t-storms will remain limited to the high terrain of eastern Arizona with no activity within the County. Above normal temperatures (102˚F-106˚F range) and quiet weather conditions will be the norm through Thursday before our first true Fall Pacific weather disturbance moves into the region bringing colder temperatures and rain chances for this upcoming weekend.



TABLE 1: Precipitation Forecast by Zone

Forecast Zone

2pm-Noon Chance of Measureable Rain (%)

Prime Time for Heaviest Rain

Maximum Prime Time Rainfall (inches)

Storms Currently Observed (X)

Gila Bend





Palo Verde





Rainbow Valley





West Valley





Northwest Valley





Upper Centennial










New River/Cave Cr





Sycamore Creek





Phoenix North





Phoenix South





Scottsdale North





Scottsdale South





Southeast Valley





Lwr. Salt R. Lakes