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Weather Outlook

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Coyote Wash Weather Station

Date & Time:  2/28/2015 9:43 AM MST
Forecaster:  Henz, D.

Synopsis

Lots to talk about today as there are some noteworthy changes in the forecast with our upcoming weather system. Morning analysis shows the disturbance centered just off the west coast of northern CA. It will continue to dig south towards the lower CO River Valley today into tomorrow before finally shifting east into AZ overnight Sunday into Monday. The slowed progression of the system will likely hold off any bands of heavier rain across southcentral AZ until late Sunday as well as the colder air behind the system. Only isolated rain showers with lighter totals are expected today and for the first half of tomorrow.

 

For today plan on partly to mostly cloudy skies with isolated rain showers. Afternoon temperatures will remain limited to the 68˚F-71˚F range around the Valley with mid to upper 60s across the higher terrain areas. Southwest winds will be breezy at times in the 7-14mph range with gusts approaching 20mph. As highlighted above, shower activity will remain isolated through this evening and rainfall totals will be spotty over the lower deserts. The highest totals through tomorrow morning will be over the higher terrain areas north and east of the Valley. Overnight low temperatures will dip into the mid 50s around the Valley under mostly cloudy skies.

 

Similar conditions are expected again tomorrow with mostly cloudy conditions and isolated showers around the region. Daytime highs will again be limited to the upper 60s to low 70w around the Valley. Southwest winds will be breezy again in the 7-14mph range with gusts around 20mph. Increasing rain showers will overspread the region from west to east through the evening and overnight hours as the bulk of the disturbance moves into AZ. A focused band of moderate to heavy rain is forecast develop sometime during the early morning hours Monday associated with the cold frontal passage. This 12hr window (12am-12pm Monday) is where we will likely see our largest rainfall totals. Model guidance is still showing rainfall totals anywhere from 0.75”-1.25” across the lower deserts and upwards of 1.50”-3.00” across areas high terrain north and east of Phoenix when all is said and done Monday evening. Another Outlook will be issued tomorrow morning with updated rainfall estimates and details on any potential localized flooding problems.

 

 

TABLE 1: Precipitation Forecast by Zone

Forecast Zone

2pm-Noon Chance of Measureable Rain (%)

Prime Time for Heaviest Rain

Maximum Prime Time Rainfall (inches)

Storms Currently Observed (X)

Gila Bend

30

None

0.10

 

Palo Verde

30

None

0.10

 

Rainbow Valley

40

None

0.10

 

West Valley

50

None

0.15

 

Northwest Valley

60

None

0.25

 

Upper Centennial

70

None

0.35

 

Wickenburg

70

None

0.35

 

New River/Cave Cr

80

None

0.60

X

Sycamore Creek

80

None

0.60

X

Phoenix North

50

None

0.35

 

Phoenix South

50

None

0.20

 

Scottsdale North

60

None

0.35

 

Scottsdale South

50

None

0.20

 

Southeast Valley

50

None

0.20

 

Lwr. Salt R. Lakes

70

None

0.50

 

Superstition

70

None

0.30