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Weather Outlook

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Coyote Wash Weather Station

Date & Time:  8/1/2014 12:24 PM MST
Forecaster:  Henz, D.

Synopsis

Last night turned out to be rather active across the western half of the county as evening outflow boundaries moving southwest off the higher terrain interacted with a remnant MCV over southern AZ initiating storms with widespread rainfall (see our Facebook or Twitter pages for rainfall totals). Heading into today, extensive cloud cover remains over southcentral AZ which will limit daytime heating. Moisture values are up around the region and favorable easterly steering flow highlight a mid/high grade Monsoon pattern through early Sunday.

                                                   

For today plan on continuing overcast conditions with pockets of sun through the early afternoon hours. Daytime highs will take a hit again due to the cloud cover only reaching the 98˚F-103˚F range around the Valley with higher terrain areas limited to the low to mid 90s. Variable winds will generally remain in the light category outside of any increased gusts from evening outflow boundaries. Latest thinking calls for a delayed start to activity until this evening. Best chances for storms are over the higher terrain north and east of the Valley with activity then trying to make its way west onto the lower deserts. Without the help of some forcing it may end up being a quiet evening. That being said if any stronger storms are able maintain/redevelop on the lower deserts (tonight/overnight), heavy rainfall with the potential for localized flash flooding will be the main hazard. Conditions will be monitored closely through the remainder of the day and statements/updates will be issued as necessary.

 

Another complex forecast is expected for tomorrow as models are predicting the area to be socked in with moisture and remnant morning cloud cover/showers from overnight activity. Afternoon temperatures look to remain on the milder side with highs limited in the upper 90s to around 101˚F around the Valley. T-storm and rain chances will remain elevated especially with the help of upper level forcing from a passing easterly wave (upper level disturbance). Areal coverage of storms will become more clear after seeing how this evening/overnight pans out. Regardless, the threat for heavy rainfall leading to localized flash flooding the be the main hazard with any storms again tomorrow.

 

 

TABLE 1: Summer Health Products

Forecast

Today

Tomorrow

Day 3

Heat Stress Indicator

Moderate

Low

Moderate

Air Quality (Ozone)

Moderate

Moderate

Good

 

TABLE 2: Precipitation Forecast by Zone

Forecast Zone

2pm-Noon Chance of Measureable Rain (%)

Prime Time for Heaviest Rain

Maximum Prime Time Rainfall (inches)

Storms Currently Observed (X)

Gila Bend

40

After 7pm

1.00”

 

Palo Verde

30

After 7pm

1.00”

 

Rainbow Valley

30

After 6pm

1.00”

 

West Valley

30

After 6pm

0.75”

 

Northwest Valley

30

After 6pm

1.25”

 

Upper Centennial

30

After 6pm

1.00”

 

Wickenburg

30

After 5pm

1.25”

 

New River/Cave Cr

40

After 4pm

1.25”

 

Sycamore Creek

40

After 4pm

1.25”

 

Phoenix North

30

After 6pm

1.00”

 

Phoenix South

20

After 6pm

0.75”

 

Scottsdale North

30

After 5pm

1.25”

 

Scottsdale South

20

After 6pm

0.75”

 

Southeast Valley

30

After 6pm

1.00”

 

Lwr. Salt R. Lakes

40

After 4pm

1.25”

 

Superstition

40

After 4pm

1.25”