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Weather Outlook

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Coyote Wash Weather Station

Date & Time:  1/31/2015 9:15 AM MST
Forecaster:  Henz, D.

Synopsis

A second round of widespread showers and some isolated t-storms brought large rain totals to most parts of the County yesterday. Locations picked up anywhere from 0.50” across western zones to upwards of 2.00” to the higher terrain north and east of the Valley (follow us on social media, above, for more details on totals). A final day of unsettled weather is in the forecast before conditions begin dry out overnight tonight into Sunday as the upper level disturbance finally moves southeast out of our region and into Mexico. Primary concerns today will be localized runoff in area washes from any follow up showers/t-storms as watersheds across most of the northern and eastern zones have picked up substantial rainfall the last two days.

 

For today, plan on mostly cloudy conditions early on isolated developing showers into the afternoon hours. Similar to yesterday, daytime highs will be limited to the 58˚F-63˚F range around the Valley with mid to upper 50s over the higher terrain areas. East/southeast winds will generally remain in the light category with no gusts of any consequence. Current Thinking: shower activity initially will stay mostly south of the County through the late morning. By this afternoon isolated to scattered showers will develop across eastern portions of the county (i.e. mainly east of the I-17/I-10 corridors). For the most part rain totals should stay on the light side in the 0.05”-0.25” range. Should any stronger t-storms develop, localized totals around 0.50” would be possible and pose a risk for runoff in areas washes. Forecast rain totals assuming a mix of showers and t-storms through midnight tonight are shown below. Conditions will be monitored throughout the day.

 

Plan on clearing conditions for Super Bowl Sunday. Patchy fog will be present during the early morning hours around the region before partly/mostly sunny skies for the rest of the day. Afternoon temperatures will rebound into the mid to upper 60s around the Valley with no rain in the forecast. Variable winds will remain in the light category with no noteworthy gusts. Dry conditions and a warming trend will are in the cards for next week as high pressure redevelops over the region.

 

 

TABLE 1: Precipitation Forecast by Zone

Forecast Zone

Now-12am Chance of Measureable Rain (%)

Prime Time for Heaviest Rain

Maximum Prime Time Rainfall (inches)

Storms Currently Observed (X)

Gila Bend

70

Now-12am

0.50”

X

Palo Verde

50

Now-12am

0.25”

 

Rainbow Valley

50

Now-12am

0.30”

 

West Valley

50

Now-12am

0.30”

 

Northwest Valley

40

Now-12am

0.25”

 

Upper Centennial

40

Now-12am

0.25”

 

Wickenburg

40

Now-12am

0.25”

 

New River/Cave Cr

50

Now-12am

0.50”

 

Sycamore Creek

50

Now-12am

0.50”

 

Phoenix North

50

Now-12am

0.40”

 

Phoenix South

50

Now-12am

0.30”

 

Scottsdale North

60

Now-12am

0.40”

 

Scottsdale South

60

Now-12am

0.30”

 

Southeast Valley

60

Now-12am

0.50”

 

Lwr. Salt R. Lakes

60

Now-12am

0.50”

 

Superstition

60

Now-12am

0.50”