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Weather Outlook

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Coyote Wash Weather Station

Date & Time:  10/20/2014 8:02 AM MST
Forecaster:  Henz, D.

Synopsis

Yesterday’s disturbance allowed for scattered showers and t-storms to develop over the high terrain of central and eastern AZ. Several rigorous outflow boundaries from that activity moved southwest in the evening helping to initiate t-storms over the lower deserts in and around the Phoenix Valley. Rainfall totals remained on the lower end outside of a few localized areas that saw upwards of 0.50”. Heading into today, this disturbance has shifted over Sonora, Mexico and will continue to slowly move east out of the region as another disturbance moves east across the central Great Basin tomorrow. By midweek high pressure will redevelop over the Desert Southwest bringing a modest warming trend.

 

For today plan on mainly sunny skies early on with pockets of afternoon/evening fair weather cumulus. Afternoon temperatures will climb into the 88˚F-91˚F range around the Valley with higher terrain areas reaching the mid 80s. Variable winds will generally remain in the light category (3-8mph range) with localized afternoon/evening gusts around 15mph. Remnant moisture and daytime heating may allow for some isolated shower activity over the high terrain north and east of the Valley, though with the best forcing and instability moving east of the region not anticipating a repeat of yesterday over the lower deserts. Overnight lows will dip into the low 70s around the urban corridor with mid 60s for outlying communities under mostly clear skies.

 

For tomorrow, plan on partly to mostly sunny skies with off and on periods of passing high clouds associated with a disturbance passing to our north. Daytime temperatures will be similar to today’s climbing into the upper 80s to low 90s around the Valley. Variable winds will remain in the light category (3-8mph range) with localized afternoon gusts around 15mph. High pressure will redevelop across the region heading into the Wednesday/Thursday timeframe and expecting afternoon temperatures to climb back into the low to mid 90 range for the second half of the work week.

 

 

TABLE 1: Precipitation Forecast by Zone

Forecast Zone

2pm-Noon Chance of Measureable Rain (%)

Prime Time for Heaviest Rain

Maximum Prime Time Rainfall (inches)

Storms Currently Observed (X)

Gila Bend

 

 

 

 

Palo Verde

 

 

 

 

Rainbow Valley

 

 

 

 

West Valley

 

 

 

 

Northwest Valley

 

 

 

 

Upper Centennial

 

 

 

 

Wickenburg

 

 

 

 

New River/Cave Cr

 

 

 

 

Sycamore Creek

10

1pm-6pm

0.10”

 

Phoenix North

 

 

 

 

Phoenix South

 

 

 

 

Scottsdale North

 

 

 

 

Scottsdale South

 

 

 

 

Southeast Valley

 

 

 

 

Lwr. Salt R. Lakes

10

1pm-6pm

0.10”

 

Superstition

10

1pm-6pm

0.10”