Flood Control District

Maricopa County, Arizona

Weather Outlook


Date & Time:  10/24/2016 10:21 AM MST
Forecaster:  Henz, D.

Model guidance through the end of last work week was making a strong case for a short period of unsettled and wet weather to start this week off. Unfortunately, it looks as though most of our region will remain dry and warmer than originally expected. Looking at the big picture, a strong upper level disturbance is slowly moving east into the Pacific Northwest. Meanwhile, resulting southwesterly flow continues to bring a healthy amount of moisture north into the Desert Southwest even fueling several broken lines of showers and t-storms across southern CA and portions of NV. This activity will continue to move east/northeast into central and northern portions of AZ through the tonight before the southern tail of this disturbance moves out of the region into Tuesday. With most of the forcing to remain well north, expecting mainly overcast skies for the rest of today with perhaps some localized showers/sprinkles across southcentral AZ. Looking ahead, high pressure will redevelop across AZ by mid-week marking a return to above average daily temperatures.


For today plan on continuing overcast skies with perhaps some light showers into this evening. Afternoon temperatures will warm into the 89˚F-92˚F range around the Valley with mid to upper 80s across the higher terrain locales. Variable winds will generally remain in the 2-6mph range with some localized greater gusts later today. As covered above, slight chances for some showers, mainly across northern higher terrain portions of the County, will exist through tonight before clearing conditions into early Tuesday. Overnight lows will dip into the low 70s to upper 60s around the urban corridor.


For tomorrow plan on a return to mostly sunny skies. Daytime highs will climb again into the 89˚F-92˚F range around the Valley. Variable winds will remain in the light category with no gusts of any consequence throughout the day. Another warming trend is expected through mid-week as high pressure redevelops across the region. Afternoon highs are forecast to reach the mid 90s on Wednesday and Thursday to go along with an uptick in passing high clouds.



TABLE 1: Precipitation Forecast by Zone

Forecast Zone

2pm-Noon chance of  Measureable Rain (%)

Prime Time for Heaviest Rain

Maximum Prime Time Rainfall (inches)

Flash Flood Potential

Storms Currently Observed (X)

 Gila Bend






 Palo Verde






 Rainbow Valley






 West Valley






 Northwest Valley






 Upper Centennial












 New River/Cave Cr





 Phoenix North






 Phoenix South






 Scottsdale North





 Scottsdale South






 Southeast Valley






 Lower Salt R. Lakes











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