Date & Time: 8/31/2016 10:29 AM MST
Forecaster: Henz, D.
A few storms were able to develop across the higher terrain zones over eastern portions of the County yesterday. Unfortunately, this activity mostly fell apart before reaching the Phoenix area. Heading into today, a similar upper level pattern remains in place with general high pressure across the southern US and a weak inverted trough slowly lifting north towards the AZ/Mexico border. As expected, moisture values have increased overnight and will continue rise through Thursday as easterly steering flow becomes more southerly. Storms chances will exist today through Friday across southcentral AZ with the focus across the higher terrain areas. Looking ahead, an approaching trough out of the Pacific Northwest will move across the region into Saturday scouring out our moisture and eliminating storm chances for the remainder of the weekend.
For today plan on mainly sunny skies into the afternoon before an uptick in cloudiness and slight chances for storms. Afternoon temperatures will climb into the 103˚F-105˚F range around the Valley with low 100s across the higher terrain locales. Variable winds will generally remain in the 5-10mph range with gustier conditions into this evening from any potential outflow boundaries. Afternoon storms are expected fire initially across the higher terrain of eastern and southeastern AZ. Steering flow will try and bring some of this activity north and west into the lower deserts, but will need the help of outflow boundaries if we want to see any rain in the Phoenix Valley, otherwise plan on only gusty winds and blowing dust.
For tomorrow plan on an uptick in moisture and cloudiness through the early morning hours. Daytime highs will warm into the 102˚F 104˚F range around the Valley under sunnier conditions. Variable winds will generally remain in the 5-10mph range with localized gustier conditions into the evening hours. A combination of ample moisture, favorable steering flow, and possibly some forcing from an approaching disturbance will yield our best chances for measurable rain across the region. Higher terrain areas north and east of the Valley will be the focus for storms, but lower desert activity in and around the Phoenix urban corridor will also be possible well into the overnight hours. For Friday plan on mostly sunny skies and breezy conditions. Afternoon highs will climb into the low 100s. Slight chances for storms will continue through the day.
TABLE 1: Summer Health Products
Heat Stress Indicator
ADEQ Air Quality (Ozone)
TABLE 2: Precipitation Forecast by Zone
2pm-Noon chance of Measureable Rain (%)
Prime Time for Heaviest Rain
Maximum Prime Time Rainfall (inches)
Flash Flood Potential
Storms Currently Observed (X)
New River/Cave Cr
Lower Salt R. Lakes
Tempe - Hayden Flour Mill (1966)
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