Date & Time: 7/28/2016 10:36 AM MST
Forecaster: Henz, D.
True to form, yesterday’s setup yielded significant storm activity across most of the eastern half of Arizona. Heavy rain fell from the Mogollon Rim south through the Tucson area. Unfortunately, storms were not able to survive coming off the higher terrain into the Phoenix Valley. Looking at the big picture, The Monsoon ridge will remain centered across the lower Great Basin today into tomorrow before shifting east towards the four corners over the weekend. Hot weather will continue today and Friday with a hit or miss chances for storms with a similar pattern in place. Heading into Saturday and Sunday, a significant influx of tropical moisture is being forecast by all model guidance lending to an uptick storm activity across the state, increasing chances for heavy rainfall, and the potential for flash flooding.
For today plan on mostly sunny skies through the afternoon before increasing cloudiness and slight chances for showers/storms into this evening. Afternoon temperatures will warm into the 110˚F-113˚F range around the Valley with triple digit readings across the higher terrain locales. East winds will generally remain in the 5-10mph range before possible localized gustier conditions from any storm outflows moving west into the region later today. Today’s setup is nearly unchanged from yesterday. Activity should initiate across the Mogollon Rim early this afternoon with steering winds bringing activity southwest towards the lower deserts. Lower moisture levels and less instability will make it tough for any storms to survive into the Phoenix Valley. Regardless, conditions will be monitored closely into this evening.
A final day with above average temperatures is in the cards for tomorrow with daytime highs again climbing into the 110˚F-113˚F range around the Valley under mostly sunny skies. Similar to today variable winds will generally remain in the 5-10mph range with possible gustier conditions into the evening. Models are advertising an increase in available moisture and more instability to fuel storms. Expecting better chances for higher terrain activity to move into portions of the lower deserts in and around the Phoenix Valley tomorrow evening with the main threat being brief heavy rain and severe wind gusts. Heading into Saturday plan on milder temperatures and muggy conditions. Daily highs look to remain in the low 100s for both Saturday and Sunday. As highlighted above, a favorable upper level pattern combined with deep moisture moving into the state will likely yield an active period with increasing chances for heavy rain producing thunderstorms both Saturday and Sunday area wide. More details on this in tomorrow’s Outlook as more information becomes available.
TABLE 1: Summer Health Products
Heat Stress Indicator
ADEQ Air Quality (Ozone)
High Pollution Advisory
TABLE 2: Precipitation Forecast by Zone
2pm-Noon chance of Measureable Rain (%)
Prime Time for Heaviest Rain
Maximum Prime Time Rainfall (inches)
Flash Flood Potential
Storms Currently Observed (X)
New River/Cave Cr
Lower Salt R. Lakes
Tempe - Hayden Flour Mill (1966)
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