Date & Time: 07/24/2021 9:30 AM MST
Forecaster: Henz, D.
We had another very active day around the County on Friday with a steady state circulation providing a constant stream of storms and rain, which led to widespread flooding of washes/streams from the central county east. Following an evening break period another wave of storms rotated into the region overnight and this activity is still ongoing this morning. Taking a step back, our well discussed disturbance currently near the AZ/NM border, will continue to slowly move west across AZ through Sunday acting as a catalyst for additional waves organized storms capable of heavy rainfall. Flash/urban flooding will continue to be our main concern especially across higher terrain watersheds and burn scars around the Phoenix Valley. A Flash Flood Watch will remain in effect through Sunday.
Plan on continuing showers the rest of the morning, before a brief lull in activity into the afternoon hours. Similar to yesterday daytime temperatures will likely remain limited to the 80s due to cloud cover. Guidance continues to show our next wave of organized storms developing across NE AZ later this afternoon and rotating SW into portions of the County this evening/tonight. As we’ve seen the last two days, stronger storms are efficient rainmakers capable of producing 1.00”+/hour. Most watersheds around the County are now saturated and will be highly susceptible to runoff in area washes/streams. Furthermore, urban flooding will continue to be a problem on area roadways, channels, low lying areas with additional heavy rainfall. Conditions will continue to be monitored closely and updates/statements will be issued as needed.
For tomorrow morning we’ll likely still be socked in with clouds and lingering showers. Afternoon temperatures will again be muted to the upper 80s to low 90s (if we get some afternoon sun). The disturbance is expected to weaken a bit as it moves across the state. We’re still expecting storm chances through the day, but activity should be less widespread and not as well organized. Of course, heavy rain will still be possible with any stronger storms and flash/urban flooding will likely occur across areas seeing additional totals. We’ll have more details on this in tomorrow’s outlook as the event continues to evolve. Regardless, drier and sunnier conditions should return early next week.