Date & Time: 02/2/2023 @ 8:25 AM MST
Forecaster: Malloy, J.
Synopsis: Warming up! High pressure is edging closer into our region. We are heading to the low to mid-70s for afternoon highs by Friday and over the weekend, peaking Saturday. The above seasonable norms are more representative of early March. Before that happens, a trough-high pressure ridge transition needs to happen today and Friday. During the transition, watch for windy conditions developing tonight out of the east-northeast and lasting through the evening hours on Friday. Windy spots keep morning lows perched closer to 50°F in the city. By the weekend, winds die down and mornings return to the cooler side (low to upper 40s, depending on proximity to urban infrastructure). The spring tease over the weekend is short lived. The Pacific storm track buckles southward over the Desert Southwest starting late Monday and is projected to be quickly reinforced by a second dip in the jetstream Wednesday/Thursday. At this time, moisture values with the pair of weather disturbances are meager, so expectation for widespread measurable precipitation in the County is low. We do likely shave 7-10+ degrees off the weekend’s warm high temps and add breezy winds to the daily weather. More to come on the rollercoaster of a weather pattern expected over the next week. Stay tuned.
Today: Another cool morning. A scan of morning temps reveals mid to upper 30s in the rural desert communities, such as Gila Bend and Wickenburg and warmer readings into the low 40s found in the urban corridor of central Phoenix. The big picture weather pattern is trending towards a much warmer scenario as high pressure ridging over California is trying to expand eastward. AZ is caught in the transition of high pressure to the west and the elongated trough impacting our weather earlier this week still transitioning into the Midwest. This means one more day of high temps capped in the upper 60s. Skies are mostly sunny and winds are light/terrain driven.
Tonight and Friday: Surface pressure gradient tightens quite a bit overnight. Breezy to windy conditions (20-35+ mph) first develop over the higher terrain along the eastern County border and expand in coverage past sunrise to include the lower valleys. Morning lows are likely greatly influenced by a turbulently mixed lower atmosphere. Some windier low elevation spots in urban areas might only dip to 50°F. The afternoon stays breezy through the evening and temps maxing out in the low 70s beforehand are noticeably mild. Also of note, is the arrival of a thick high cloud deck after the morning hours.
Extended: The surface warming trend continues Saturday as skies clear and diurnal winds become more typical. Sunday is mostly sunny, warm, and tranquil to start and breezy to finish. The next series of low pressure troughs (mainly dry) turn the weather cooler and breezy starting Monday.